Gold seen peaking at $1,900/oz in next 6 months - GFMS

By Siddesh Mayenkar MUMBAI | Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:34pm IST (Reuters) - Gold could hit $1,900 an ounce in the next six months, driven by buyers seeking an investment safe from global economic problems, but a further rise to $2,000 looks unlikely, metals consultancy GFMS said on Thursday. "Gold will be muddling through to peak at $1,900 (an ounce) as U.S. data points have been ambiguous, the action on the fiscal and monetary front is also ambiguous," said Paul Walker, global head of precious metals at GFMS, which has been acquired by Thomson Reuters. Gold extended record highs above $1,825 an ounce on Thursday after poorly received U.S. jobs data hurt assets seen as higher risk, such as stocks, while boosting interest in nominal safe havens such as gold. So far in August, the price has risen by more than 12 percent, putting it on track for its biggest monthly gain since November 2009. "In the time frame, we really need exceptionally dramatic news to push gold above $2,000 and this is not our base case," said Walker. "This is highly unlikely." Although gold remains off its inflation-adjusted peak above $2,000 struck in 1980, it is one of the top performing assets this year, up by over 28 percent versus a 15-percent loss in U.S. blue-chip stocks or a 7.7-percent decline in the price of copper . He said there was a high probability of India's gold imports crossing 1,000 tonnes this year -- up four percent on 2010 -- as expectations were for prices to gain further. The World Gold Council in a report on Thursday said Indian gold jewellery buying was up 17 percent in the second quarter and that signs of strength in the market remained. Gold imports by MMTC, India's second biggest importer of the metal, have tumbled to 5 tonnes so far in August as buyers preferred a 'wait-and-watch' approach. Walker said consumers would wait for price stability before jumping in. "People are getting accustomed to this kind of a benchmark (price) even though it is at incredibly elevated levels. Everybody who is involved in the value chain in the Indian gold market thinks prices will go up," said Walker, ahead of a conference in Kerala. Silver prices could extend gains to $50 an ounce in the next months from around $40.60 an ounce now, he added. "It will follow gold up ... It will move towards $50, but it is going to be a hell of a lot more volatile," said Walker. Silver prices have more than trebled since 2008 to peak at $49.51 an ounce this year. "Silver will benefit from the same factors as that of gold from rising investment drivers. Until the global macro situation gets clearer, prices will go higher," he said.

Berita Harian Online | Bisnes Dunia: Amaran kelembapan ekonomi global

Berita Harian Online | Bisnes Dunia: Amaran kelembapan ekonomi global

Fahami pelbagai kos jual beli emas

Celik Kewangan

 

SEJAK kebelakangan ini banyak diperkatakan mengenai pelaburan dalam jongkong emas (gold bar). Saya berasa musykil apakah kelebihan membuat pelaburan dalam bentuk jongkong emas dengan membeli barang kemas (sebagai perhiasan)? Manakah yang lebih menguntungkan?
LAILI RAHMAn
Taman Desa
EMAS sentiasa menjadi topik pelaburan yang hangat, lebih-lebih lagi selepas kita melihat harga emas melonjak dalam tempoh dua tahun lepas. Dari segi dolar Amerika, harga emas telah naik sebanyak 60 peratus dalam tempoh dua tahun lepas dan lebih 150 peratus dalam tempoh empat tahun lepas. Sebab itulah emas kini mendapat perhatian ramai.
Soalnya apakah cara terbaik untuk meraih keuntungan daripada emas? Ada pelbagai cara anda boleh melabur dalam emas. Anda boleh membeli emas dalam bentuk fizikal sebenar dan ini mungkin dalam bentuk jongkong emas atau syiling emas. Syiling emas contohnya, Kijang Emas, mungkin lebih popular di Malaysia. Apabila membeli syiling emas, bank akan menyebut harga belian dan harga jualan. Inilah harga di mana bank akan membeli emas daripada anda atau menjual emas kepada anda. Dua harga ini adalah berbeza dan inilah kos anda untuk memiliki emas.
Sebagai contoh, untuk satu auns emas, harga jualan ialah RM5,571 bagi Kijang Emas. Inilah harga satu auns Kijang Emas yang dijual oleh bank kepada anda. Harga belian balik ialah RM5,352 bagi satu auns Kijang Emas. Inilah harga bank akan membeli balik satu auns Kijang Emas daripada anda, atau dengan kata lain, anda akan menjual balik barang kemas anda pada harga ini. Jika anda mahu membeli emas, anda boleh berbuat demikian pada harga RM5,571 dan menjualnya pada RM5,352. Perhatian bahawa terdapat perbezaan 4.0 peratus antara kedua-dua harga ini. Jika anda membeli Kijang Emas, katakan pada harga RM5,571, anda perlu menunggu harga belian balik RM5,352 untuk naik melebihi harga belian RM5,571 untuk meraih untung. Oleh itu ada baiknya meninjau sama ada terdapat harga jualan dan belian yang lebih baik.
Sebagai pilihan, anda boleh membeli barangan kemas daripada kedai emas. Kaedah ini menjadi pilihan utama di Timur Tengah dan Asia. Umumnya terdapat harga emas runcit yang ditetapkan oleh Persekutuan Tukang Emas dan Persatuan Jauhari Malaysia (www.fgjam.org.my) yang memberikan panduan tentang kadar emas yang ditawarkan oleh kedai emas. Anda perlu ingat bahawa barangan kemas berhubung kait dengan arah hala dan terdapat bahagian tertentu kos barangan kemas yang berkaitan dengan kerja ketukangan.
Jika barangan kemas dileburkan, anda mungkin kehilangan nilai kos berkait dengan kerja ketukangan tersebut, kerana nilai akhir yang dikira adalah hanya berasaskan nilai emas.
Selain itu adalah sukar untuk mengesahkan kandungan emas. Jadi nilai barangan kemas anda mungkin tidak mudah dan sukar ditentukan secara konsisten. Anda juga perlu mempertimbangkan faktor simpanan, sebagai contoh, menyewa peti besi atau peti simpanan selamat jika anda mempunyai jumlah emas yang besar.
Satu lagi cara yang semakin popular sejak dua tahun lepas ialah akaun buku simpanan emas. Apabila anda membuka akaun tersebut, anda akan diberikan buku simpanan.
Ia berfungsi sama seperti akaun simpanan. Apabila gaji anda dikreditkan ke dalam akaun simpanan, anda tidak memegang tunai secara fizikal sehingga anda mengeluarkannya daripada ATM.
Oleh sebab terdapat pelbagai kaedah untuk membeli emas, anda perlu memahami kos menjual beli emas. Satu lagi, emas diniagakan dalam dolar Amerika, dengan itu terdapat risiko tukaran asing bagi pelabur yang membeli emas dalam mata wang lain, seperti Ringgit Malaysia (RM).
Sebarang keputusan melabur dalam emas hendaklah dibuat untuk jangka panjang. Berdasarkan pergerakan pasaran saham, emas memberikan perlindungan terhadap ketidaktentuan global. Selain itu, emas merupakan lindung nilai yang baik terhadap inflasi. Justeru, emas merupakan kelas aset yang patut dipertimbangkan.

UPDATE 1-Gold hits all-time high as equities tumble on U.S. downgrade

Aug 9 (Reuters) - Bullion roared to all-time highs for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as stock markets plunged on growing fears of a recession in the United States after last week's cut in the country's credit rating. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 struck a record around $1,727 an ounce, while cash gold hit an all-time high about $1,724 an ounce as investors fled stocks for bonds and bullion following the historic U.S. downgrade. "Markets are now worried about another global recession. Out of Europe, French bond yields have widened an expectation of sovereign debt downgrade because of the country's exposure to peripheral European debt," said Natalie Robertson, a commodities strategist at ANZ. "I think everyone was also looking at the 7 percent drop in the S&P 500. The market was very concerned over the global economy." Gold surged more than 3 percent on Monday, surpassing $1,700 an ounce for the first time after Standard & Poor's cut the top-notch AAA credit rating of the United States, setting off an investor stampede for safety. Wall Street ended down more than 6 percent, with U.S. stocks racking up their biggest losses in almost three years while European stocks hit a two-year low as investors saw no solution to the twin debt crises on both sides of the Atlantic. The cost of insuring French debt against default rose on Monday after a Standard & Poor's downgrade of the United State's triple-A rating raised questions over how long other countries could hold onto their top-notch ratings. Adjusted for inflation, bullion is one of the few elements of the commodity complex trading below its all-time highs, estimated at $2,500 an ounce. J P Morgan said on Monday it expected spot gold to climb to $2,500 an ounce or higher by year-end, on very high volatility, following the downgrade of U.S. debt. The U.S. bank said its previous estimate of $1,800 was "too conservative". The prospect of an even longer period of low U.S. interest rates prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its three-month forecast for the gold price by about $100. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust registered their biggest one-day gain in more than a year, rising 1.8 percent on Monday.