Gold seen peaking at $1,900/oz in next 6 months - GFMS

By Siddesh Mayenkar MUMBAI | Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:34pm IST (Reuters) - Gold could hit $1,900 an ounce in the next six months, driven by buyers seeking an investment safe from global economic problems, but a further rise to $2,000 looks unlikely, metals consultancy GFMS said on Thursday. "Gold will be muddling through to peak at $1,900 (an ounce) as U.S. data points have been ambiguous, the action on the fiscal and monetary front is also ambiguous," said Paul Walker, global head of precious metals at GFMS, which has been acquired by Thomson Reuters. Gold extended record highs above $1,825 an ounce on Thursday after poorly received U.S. jobs data hurt assets seen as higher risk, such as stocks, while boosting interest in nominal safe havens such as gold. So far in August, the price has risen by more than 12 percent, putting it on track for its biggest monthly gain since November 2009. "In the time frame, we really need exceptionally dramatic news to push gold above $2,000 and this is not our base case," said Walker. "This is highly unlikely." Although gold remains off its inflation-adjusted peak above $2,000 struck in 1980, it is one of the top performing assets this year, up by over 28 percent versus a 15-percent loss in U.S. blue-chip stocks or a 7.7-percent decline in the price of copper . He said there was a high probability of India's gold imports crossing 1,000 tonnes this year -- up four percent on 2010 -- as expectations were for prices to gain further. The World Gold Council in a report on Thursday said Indian gold jewellery buying was up 17 percent in the second quarter and that signs of strength in the market remained. Gold imports by MMTC, India's second biggest importer of the metal, have tumbled to 5 tonnes so far in August as buyers preferred a 'wait-and-watch' approach. Walker said consumers would wait for price stability before jumping in. "People are getting accustomed to this kind of a benchmark (price) even though it is at incredibly elevated levels. Everybody who is involved in the value chain in the Indian gold market thinks prices will go up," said Walker, ahead of a conference in Kerala. Silver prices could extend gains to $50 an ounce in the next months from around $40.60 an ounce now, he added. "It will follow gold up ... It will move towards $50, but it is going to be a hell of a lot more volatile," said Walker. Silver prices have more than trebled since 2008 to peak at $49.51 an ounce this year. "Silver will benefit from the same factors as that of gold from rising investment drivers. Until the global macro situation gets clearer, prices will go higher," he said.

Berita Harian Online | Bisnes Dunia: Amaran kelembapan ekonomi global

Berita Harian Online | Bisnes Dunia: Amaran kelembapan ekonomi global

Fahami pelbagai kos jual beli emas

Celik Kewangan

 

SEJAK kebelakangan ini banyak diperkatakan mengenai pelaburan dalam jongkong emas (gold bar). Saya berasa musykil apakah kelebihan membuat pelaburan dalam bentuk jongkong emas dengan membeli barang kemas (sebagai perhiasan)? Manakah yang lebih menguntungkan?
LAILI RAHMAn
Taman Desa
EMAS sentiasa menjadi topik pelaburan yang hangat, lebih-lebih lagi selepas kita melihat harga emas melonjak dalam tempoh dua tahun lepas. Dari segi dolar Amerika, harga emas telah naik sebanyak 60 peratus dalam tempoh dua tahun lepas dan lebih 150 peratus dalam tempoh empat tahun lepas. Sebab itulah emas kini mendapat perhatian ramai.
Soalnya apakah cara terbaik untuk meraih keuntungan daripada emas? Ada pelbagai cara anda boleh melabur dalam emas. Anda boleh membeli emas dalam bentuk fizikal sebenar dan ini mungkin dalam bentuk jongkong emas atau syiling emas. Syiling emas contohnya, Kijang Emas, mungkin lebih popular di Malaysia. Apabila membeli syiling emas, bank akan menyebut harga belian dan harga jualan. Inilah harga di mana bank akan membeli emas daripada anda atau menjual emas kepada anda. Dua harga ini adalah berbeza dan inilah kos anda untuk memiliki emas.
Sebagai contoh, untuk satu auns emas, harga jualan ialah RM5,571 bagi Kijang Emas. Inilah harga satu auns Kijang Emas yang dijual oleh bank kepada anda. Harga belian balik ialah RM5,352 bagi satu auns Kijang Emas. Inilah harga bank akan membeli balik satu auns Kijang Emas daripada anda, atau dengan kata lain, anda akan menjual balik barang kemas anda pada harga ini. Jika anda mahu membeli emas, anda boleh berbuat demikian pada harga RM5,571 dan menjualnya pada RM5,352. Perhatian bahawa terdapat perbezaan 4.0 peratus antara kedua-dua harga ini. Jika anda membeli Kijang Emas, katakan pada harga RM5,571, anda perlu menunggu harga belian balik RM5,352 untuk naik melebihi harga belian RM5,571 untuk meraih untung. Oleh itu ada baiknya meninjau sama ada terdapat harga jualan dan belian yang lebih baik.
Sebagai pilihan, anda boleh membeli barangan kemas daripada kedai emas. Kaedah ini menjadi pilihan utama di Timur Tengah dan Asia. Umumnya terdapat harga emas runcit yang ditetapkan oleh Persekutuan Tukang Emas dan Persatuan Jauhari Malaysia (www.fgjam.org.my) yang memberikan panduan tentang kadar emas yang ditawarkan oleh kedai emas. Anda perlu ingat bahawa barangan kemas berhubung kait dengan arah hala dan terdapat bahagian tertentu kos barangan kemas yang berkaitan dengan kerja ketukangan.
Jika barangan kemas dileburkan, anda mungkin kehilangan nilai kos berkait dengan kerja ketukangan tersebut, kerana nilai akhir yang dikira adalah hanya berasaskan nilai emas.
Selain itu adalah sukar untuk mengesahkan kandungan emas. Jadi nilai barangan kemas anda mungkin tidak mudah dan sukar ditentukan secara konsisten. Anda juga perlu mempertimbangkan faktor simpanan, sebagai contoh, menyewa peti besi atau peti simpanan selamat jika anda mempunyai jumlah emas yang besar.
Satu lagi cara yang semakin popular sejak dua tahun lepas ialah akaun buku simpanan emas. Apabila anda membuka akaun tersebut, anda akan diberikan buku simpanan.
Ia berfungsi sama seperti akaun simpanan. Apabila gaji anda dikreditkan ke dalam akaun simpanan, anda tidak memegang tunai secara fizikal sehingga anda mengeluarkannya daripada ATM.
Oleh sebab terdapat pelbagai kaedah untuk membeli emas, anda perlu memahami kos menjual beli emas. Satu lagi, emas diniagakan dalam dolar Amerika, dengan itu terdapat risiko tukaran asing bagi pelabur yang membeli emas dalam mata wang lain, seperti Ringgit Malaysia (RM).
Sebarang keputusan melabur dalam emas hendaklah dibuat untuk jangka panjang. Berdasarkan pergerakan pasaran saham, emas memberikan perlindungan terhadap ketidaktentuan global. Selain itu, emas merupakan lindung nilai yang baik terhadap inflasi. Justeru, emas merupakan kelas aset yang patut dipertimbangkan.

UPDATE 1-Gold hits all-time high as equities tumble on U.S. downgrade

Aug 9 (Reuters) - Bullion roared to all-time highs for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as stock markets plunged on growing fears of a recession in the United States after last week's cut in the country's credit rating. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 struck a record around $1,727 an ounce, while cash gold hit an all-time high about $1,724 an ounce as investors fled stocks for bonds and bullion following the historic U.S. downgrade. "Markets are now worried about another global recession. Out of Europe, French bond yields have widened an expectation of sovereign debt downgrade because of the country's exposure to peripheral European debt," said Natalie Robertson, a commodities strategist at ANZ. "I think everyone was also looking at the 7 percent drop in the S&P 500. The market was very concerned over the global economy." Gold surged more than 3 percent on Monday, surpassing $1,700 an ounce for the first time after Standard & Poor's cut the top-notch AAA credit rating of the United States, setting off an investor stampede for safety. Wall Street ended down more than 6 percent, with U.S. stocks racking up their biggest losses in almost three years while European stocks hit a two-year low as investors saw no solution to the twin debt crises on both sides of the Atlantic. The cost of insuring French debt against default rose on Monday after a Standard & Poor's downgrade of the United State's triple-A rating raised questions over how long other countries could hold onto their top-notch ratings. Adjusted for inflation, bullion is one of the few elements of the commodity complex trading below its all-time highs, estimated at $2,500 an ounce. J P Morgan said on Monday it expected spot gold to climb to $2,500 an ounce or higher by year-end, on very high volatility, following the downgrade of U.S. debt. The U.S. bank said its previous estimate of $1,800 was "too conservative". The prospect of an even longer period of low U.S. interest rates prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its three-month forecast for the gold price by about $100. Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust registered their biggest one-day gain in more than a year, rising 1.8 percent on Monday.

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Debt fears send gold price to new record ($US1,600)an ounce

HIGHER: Debt problems in the US and Europe have pushed the gold price to a new record above $US1600 an ounce. GOLD'S reputation as a safe place for your money sent it above $US1,600 ($A1,508) for the first time. Investors are worried about debt problems on both sides of the Atlantic. So they bid gold up $US12.30 an ounce overnight to settle at $US1,602.40. That's a record for the market price for gold, but below its 1980 peak after adjusting for inflation. An ounce of gold at that time cost $US850, or about $US2,400 in today's dollars. Gold is looking better by the day because debt problems in the US and Europe are making two other so-called safe havens, the dollar and the euro, seem shaky. The US could default on its debt on August 2 if Congress and the White House don't agree to raise the country's borrowing limit. In Europe, investors are worried that Greece may default. Countries including Italy, Spain and Ireland are also struggling to pay their bills. Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar. End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar. Defaults could mean losses for the banks that own bonds issued by those countries, and that could trigger widespread disruption in financial markets. Why own gold? It's because gold has a long history as a way of preserving wealth, said Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of the $96 million Midas Fund. The fund owns gold and stocks in gold miners. ``In 6,000 years, gold is one of the very few assets that have never gone to zero.'' Winmill expects gold to rise to $US1,800 by the end of 2012. Investors believe gold is safe because it doesn't depend on a government's ability to repay a bond, like a Treasury or a Greek note. Neither do other commodities like crude oil, which has the added use of powering cars. ``But it's much easier to pick up a bar of gold than a swimming pool of oil,'' said James Steel, an analyst with HSBC. Gold rose 21 per cent in dollar terms in the 12 months through June 30, according to the World Gold Council, an industry group. It rose against other currencies, too: up 2.2 per cent in euros, 10.4 per cent in Japanese yen and 16.5 per cent in Indian rupees. But gold fell 5.5 per cent against the Swiss franc, which is seen as one of the world's safest currencies. Gold's rise has accelerated in the last two weeks: Monday was its 10th straight day of gains after it closed at $US1,482.60 on July 1. Gold has also steadily risen since the start of 2009, when it cost $US880. The Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates at a record low of nearly zero since December 2008. Low interest rates weaken the appeal of the dollar, and that in turn sends gold higher. Investors are behind much of the increase in the price of gold. Demand from investors rose 26 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to industry data. Demand for gold from dentists for crowns and from companies for use in electronics was flat. Demand for gold in jewellery rose 7 per cent.

Five reasons why gold breached $1,500 an ounce

Assalamualaikum  dan salam sejahtera kepada pembaca sekalian...

   Seperti yang telah diramalkan diawal tahun 2011,pada tahun ini harga EMAS akan mencecah pada harga USD1500 an ounce dan ini telah terbukti  dengan catatan artikel dibawah ini.

 Maka beruntunglah kepada sesiapa yang telah membeli EMAS sebelum ini.!!!

    Saya sendiri pada awal tahun  ini telah membeli  EMAS PUBLICGOLD sebagai salah satu pelaburan kewangan dan menjadikannya sebagai aset saya apabila membaca artikel ramalan kenaikan harga emas akan mencecah  USD1500 an ounce pada tahun ini di suratkhabar lalu saya jadikanya  catatan awal blog saya ini sebagai panduan.Memang ramalan ini terbukti!!!.Sebagai contoh salah satu EMAS publicgold yang saya beli pada awal tahun ini (Jongkong emas100gram) pada harga WE SELL RM15463.00,hari ini harga EMAS PUBLICGOLD (jongkong emas 100gram)telah naik  menjadi kepada harga WE SELL RM16536.00 manakala harga WE BUY pula pada harga RM15709.Ini bererti dalam masa empat bulan sahaja aset  yang saya beli telah berkembang dan menjana keuntungan.Kenapa ia begitu cepat menjana keuntungan?Salah satu faktornya ialah jongkong EMAS PUBLICGOLD mempunyai spread harga yang rendah(sekitar 5%-6%) berbanding dengan harga barang kemas di kedai-kedai  emas.Inilah kelebihan emas PUBLICGOLD.Saya sebagai ejen publicgold kalau menjualnya pada masa ini sudah pasti akan mendapat keuntungan daripada perniagaan emas ini.Inilah keistimewaan menjadi ejen publicgold , jual emas kat pelanggan atau jual balik kat  syarikat publicgold dah dapat untung ,beli emas dapat  harga komisyen ,beli emas tak jual dan simpan saja menjadikanya sebagai aset pun akan mendapat untung kerana harga emas dijangka akan terus naik dari harga sekarang.

   Kalau kata jika kita hendak membeli emas sekarang dengan mengatakan "Nanti...sekarang harga emas tengah mahal,,jangan beli dulu.......nanti RUGI.." . 
  Bagaimana pula tentang ramalan mengatakan "Harga emas pada masa akan datang akan lebih mahal dari sekarang ini ...." Adakah kita masih tidak percaya ataupun mengambil kesempatan dengan  menambah  aset & pelaburan kewangan kita diatas keuntungan dengan membeli emas .

                                             APAKAH TINDAKAN KITA....
 Mari kita fikir balik pada masa sekarang ini, kadang kadang kalau kita mendengar sesuatu ramalan harga minyak petrol ataupun barang barang harian akan naik harga..TINDAKAN KITA ialah cepat-cepat pergi membeli untuk mendapatkan stok barangan sebagai simpanan untuk mengelakkan kerugian dengan  membeli harga pada harga yang baru yang lebih tinggi.( INFLASI NAIK ).Mengapa  kita tidak mengambil TINDAKAN dengan ramalan kenaikan  harga EMAS pula!!!,beli sekarang walaupun harga mahal ,akan datang  harga akan lebih mahal dan jika kita membeli sekarang akan datang tetap ada untung  juga.

        FIKIR-FIKIRKANLAH... DUNIA INI SEMAKIN MENEKAN KEHIDUPAN KITA.

 JIKA ANDA RASA INGIN MEMBELI EMAS PUBLICGOLD MENJADIKANYA SEBAGAI PELABURAN KEWANGAN ANDA..DAN INGIN MENJADI EJEN PUBLICGOLD JANGAN SEGAN SILU UNTUK MENGHUBUNGI SAYA......

Last sekali.... layanlah artikel dibawah ni. 

Wassalam....

Five reasons why gold breached $1,500 an ounce
Gold breached the $1,500 an ounce threshold on Wednesday as gold's appeal as a shelter from risk increased.

Reuters reported that spot gold hit a high of $1,505.21 an ounce and was bid at $1,505.16 an ounce at 5:42 a.m. ET, against $1,493.90 late in New York on Tuesday.
The yellow metal hit a high of $1,500.70 an ounce in Hong Kong trade.
Gold's rise was also coupled with Silver hitting a 31-year high at $44.56 an ounce and was later bid at $44.51 against $43.89.
The increase in price of Gold and Silver seems inevitable now and analysts point out the following facts.
S&P's revision of America's credit rating:

Standard & Poor's recently threatened that it will downgrade United States AAA rating due to the high budget deficit. Reuters quoted Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington, who said that the downgrade could result in "wholesale abandonment of dollar assets and would potentially destabilize the entire global economy."
In such a scenario, where dollar assets seem to be losing their sheen, gold shines as good store of value.
Fears of weakening dollar:
Bloomberg reported that the dollar slipped 0.8 percent against six major currencies trading at a 16-month low. The weakened dollar has lent support to gold prices. Reuters reported that weakness in dollar boosts gold's appeal as an alternative asset. Also US Federal Reserve and central banks across Europe have attempted to deal with the debt crisis by pumping more paper money which will further decline the value of currency and increase the value of gold and silver.
According to Daily Markets analyst Michael Snyder, a sustained increase in gold and oil indicates that the dollar is on the decline. Synder wrote: "... when these commodities go up in price it is a sign that the U.S. dollar is dying and that our country is getting closer to economic collapse." He further elaborates that gold and silver price hike indicates that investors are losing trust in dollar and US treasuries.
No alternative currency:
In spite of the trillion dollar deficit which has created a lot of new money, the US dollar has still been the reserve currency as there is no alternative currency. Tom Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies & Co. in New York, told Reuters: "One of the reasons why the U.S. dollar is still the reserve currency is the lack of other options, and in two years there may still be no other options."  In such a scenario, dollars' value is obviously eroding while gold and silver appear as more stable form of investments.
Higher Inflation:
Higher crude prices, which according to WSJ, are up 1 percent at $108.20 a barrel, tend to increase investments in gold as a hedge against oil-led inflation. Gold acts as good hedge against inflation, primarily when interest rates in most countries are low.
Bloomberg reported that the difference between yields on U.S. 10-year notes and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and a trader's expectations for inflation widened to as much as 2.66 percentage points on April 20. The spread reached 2.67 percentage points on April 11, the most in three years.
Inflation concerns and higher consumer income in China and India are fuelling gold prices as well. Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins told Reuters : "The theme of longer term higher inflation than we have seen in the last 10 years in China is a pretty solid view, so gold is going to be an asset class that is probably going to be more in favor in China than it has been in the past."
Decreasing investor faith in European Bonds:
Interest rate on Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds increased on fears that some form default is imminent. Los Angeles Times reported that annualized yield on two-year Greek bonds soared to 20.72 percent on Tuesday, up from 16.42 percent a week earlier. Portuguese two-year-note yields are at 10.14 percent versus 9.05 percent a week ago. Irish two-year yields are at 9.69 percent versus 8.66 percent. This indicates that investors are no longer looking at bonds as safe havens and are thus turning to gold.
Gold and silver rally will continue as long as oil-led inflationary pressure caused by the Middle East crisis, weakening dollar and debt crisis deepens across the globe.